Risk Analyzer

An analysis add-in product for Microsoft Excel

Do you have these problems:

• Need to perform risk analysis?
• Need risk analysis software that you can share with users and non-users?
• Want to learn how to do risk analysis but don't want to pay an expensive training fee?
• Want a fast, affordable risk analysis program?

The Risk Analyzer can solve all of these problems and more!

If you are evaluating an investment proposal, a new business, a budget, a proposal involving financial risk, or a scientific study, then the Risk Analyzer is the tool for you.  The Risk Analyzer gives you tables and graphics that illustrate the risks of the proposal. Word and PowerPoint presentations using these calculations and graphs show that you have looked at the benefits and risks of your proposal.

The Risk Analyzer is extremely fast flexible and completely menu driven for ease of use.  The following are the tabs on the main Risk Analyzer dialog:

   
                                                                           Show Tab #1                                                               

                                                                 Show Tab #2  

The Risk Analyzer works by doing Monte Carlo simulations.   Monte Carlo simulation is simply the creation of many "what if" cases to determine the expected results of a study.  You do not need to know statistics or how to write probability formulas in order to use the Risk Analyzer.  It is unnecessary to embed custom functions into your workbooks.  All you need to know is what values your input variables are likely to have:  the minimum and maximum values and the distribution shape (uniform normal or skewed in one direction).  The following illustrates the different types of distributions that are available:

The results are presented to you via graphs and tables that will be readily understood by your management investors partners associates or bankers.  The following illustrates just one of the output graphs created by the Risk Analyzer:

In addition to result charts like the one above, the Risk Analyzer also gives you histograms that show cumulative probabilities and tornado charts that show the sensitivity of the output variables to your input variables. 

The Risk Analyzer is the only risk analysis program that creates risk funnel charts like the following:

Such charts are a great way to graphically see the risk of a proposal. 

Key features of the Risk Analyzer:

• Completely menu driven for ease of use.
• Designed and written by users for users.
• You do not put any special functions into your workbooks, which allows you to share your workbooks with others who do not have the Risk Analyzer.   Many other Monte Carlo simulation programs embed special functions that require all users of the workbooks to purchase their expensive programs.
• Easy to learn - you do not need to attend expensive training courses to learn how to use.  Three helpful example files with step by step instructions show you how to use the Risk Analyzer.  There is also an extensive help file.
• No annual support contract  required to talk to a support person for help. If you need assistance just call us. Our free help doesn't expire.
• Your input variables (cells) and their distributions are listed on a special premise sheet for you to conveniently review.
• Customizable probability distribution.  You do not need to create a distribution for each input cell - use one distribution for a group of related cells.
• Probability distributions can have minimum and maximum allowed values so that you do not get extreme, unrealistic values in your studies
• You can have as many input and output variables as you need
• Worksheets are created that list all the simulations with the values of all the output variables and input variables

1.  Easily set your workbook to the input values in any simulation so that you can check your model's calculations
2. Easily set your workbook back to its original values once you are done

• Easy to understand reports
• Select which input and output variables to use when doing a Monte Carlo analysis so that you can easily perform "what if" studies on any subset of your input and output variables.
• Very very fast - do thousands of evaluations in minutes.  
• "What if " capability that allows you to type in a value and see what the probability of occurrence is for that value.
• Customizable histograms that have step sizes, number of bins (bars), and minimum and maximum values for ease of use and interpretation.
• The Risk Analyzer add-in is loaded only when you need it instead of loading every time you open Excel.
• Easy to use installation program.
• Frequent free upgrades as we conscientiously add features our users suggest.
• Reasonably priced.